If we wish to find guaranteed profitable sports bets then soccer is a great sports to start with. Soccer matches are priced up by all the big bookmakers plus some nice guaranteed profitable bets can be purchased if you know when and where to look. Sports bookmakers never miss a trick when thinking up new ways to extract your cash from you and there are lots of inventive bets on offer.
Soccer can in lots of ways talk about timing. The quicker the price appears the much more likely you will see a sure-bet or arbitrage opportunity (arb).
Bookmakers clearly do plenty of research as soccer has now become a big earner for them. They have to accomplish this as they are only too conscious that the serious punters have grown to be much shrewder in this particular market and definately will exploit any snippets of news which could provide them with a good edge. They advertise heavily in the tabloids.
Whereas in certain minor sports there may be only one odds compiler working for the bookmaker soccer is just too lucrative with this any many odds compilers will work feverishly setting prices for that big bookmakers. Any European bookmaker worth its salt will offer you odds on soccer, its a very high revenue turnover sport.
Such is the turnover on the ever increasing IBO88 that Ladbrokes as well as other such big bookmakers are willing to require a ‘big’ bet on the results of a match. This is clearly great news for your arb maker. This means that the maximum bets they will likely accept on the bet are much higher.
There are lots of varieties of soccer bets. Firstly there is a match winner. This is divided into 3 results, win, lose or draw. And then there are the first goal scorer and the precise match score. The less obvious bets are half-time, full time results, total corners, total throw-ins, total amounts of yellow and red cards etc. In reality anything where odds can be set to will offer you a betting opportunity.
So that are the best soccer bets to search for? Firstly forget about predicting the match score, there are too many outcomes. The initial goal scorer is a waste of time too. Both these kinds of bets are heavily advertised however are for mug punters only, the percentages consistently being offered are poor, the bookmakers regularly overtaking 15% profit on the book. These bets have too many possible outcomes. We are looking for bets with ideally 2 or 3 possible outcomes.
How you can play the soccer market is to start accounts with European bookmakers because the difference in opinion between UK and European bookmakers is an excellent source of sure bets. Both have strong opinions about this sport. They will likely price in the sport in their own country and also the matches in foreign countries. Anything to create a profit.
Italy, as an example is even more soccer crazy compared to the UK, with newspapers committed to the game. Everyone thinks they know best with this subject and egos get in the form of sensible pricing. This is great news for us. The European bookmakers can be opinionated and where since they may well have greater detailed understanding of the comings and goings in their countries they are relying on third parties to collate info on their foreign counterparts.
One good starting point is at midweek games between teams of different nationalities. There exists a tendency in punters to obtain patriotic with regards to events in which the opposition are ‘foreign’. The probability of the house team get talked up and also the odds might get skewed inside their favour as the weight of cash is overly wagered within their direction.
Having said that the large bookmakers offer an early price, they will often advertise it inside the national papers and in general stick to it. Which means that a bench mark continues to be set and subsequent bookmakers may have a different opinion or make an effort to tempt cash in their direction by giving different odds. If the were to happen the arb may be available for a considerable amount of time.
There will always be discrepancies in odds but clearly bookmakers tend to stick round the same price. They figure there is certainly safety in numbers. But bear in mind they are ‘guessing’ exactly what the odds should be just like you together with me. They are basing their opinion on past experience and they might utilise statistical formulae nevertheless they still have to form an opinion on the likely outcome.
They can have it wrong and other firms can require a completely different look at the end result of a game. An entirely different view will only result in a slight variation within the odds but this can be enough to offer a sure bet profit.
Another approach is to start with the more obscure games in eg. the Spanish, Italian or Norweigen lower divisions. They can have quite lucrative discrepancies. They are protected by a number of different bookmakers around Europe. This may however give a complication. Although really simple to find arbs, the mere fact that you focus on these obscure matches will throw in the possibility that you will get spotted from the bookmakers in the event you concentrate your action here.
Also they will be unwilling to accept high maximum bets on matches where they have got done little research. On the other hand it is a training ground for arb spotting and may gain you valuable experience. You have to weigh up the advantages and disadvantages of the strategy.
This is a fairly obscure section of betting and when someone would be to check your bank account over a number of months and found solely these obscure foreign matches on the account it may ring alarm bells. The motto here is to dilute the bets by betting on as many different type of sport and events as you can so that your accounts have varied bets on them. This shouldn’t become a problem as much different sports are perfect for sure bets.
The greater prominent European ties will even produce arbs and they are more unlikely to attract focus on you and the highest bets will likely be higher.
As before you cannot control whether or not the individual bets win or lose but soccer is really a 3 way result therefore 2 losing bets to one winning one can be of use on your own account. The point the following is which not so many people are considering the lower European divisions plus it may become clear the betting pattern is a touch unusual. This is also true should your bets for the maximum permitted.
Injury news can be considered a lucrative area in soccer. Think about it. If a player fails a late fitness test on a Saturday and then he is definitely the teams star striker than the will greatly affect their chances. Recently Alan Shearer turned up to play a premiership game for Newcastle but was declared unfit to play in the last minute. Newcastle were soundly beaten. I am just not implying this wouldn’t have happened, I don’t know. Nevertheless the odds on the game clearly changed the minute this news broke.
Some bookmakers were alert to this particular and altered prices as the money poured set for the opposition. Some were slow to react or would not have reacted at all. Either way arbs were available. This type of last minute frantic activity is extremely keen on the betting exchanges like Betfair in which you can work as the punter or even the bookmaker (lay bets).
You can find injury news through one of the many soccer websites. Alternatively satellite television channels usually have comprehensive news coverage of all the games and they are quick to offer you any ‘off the press’ news. Slowly the bookmakers’ prices will all change, although not all simultaneously, only one by one so creating sure bets.
In this scenario where charges are changing bet on the old price first. The newest prices are the one which wont change the previous price is the one which is going to and so may be lost if you are not quick.
To re-emphasise, arb hunting can be all about timing. When the odds are first produced or have reason to change then the arbs are more likely to appear.
Recently the English referees have become more lenient within the issuing of yellow cards. This had an effect on the prices for your total variety of bookings in a game. Some of the bookmakers adjusted their prices accordingly yet others did not. This will change the bet ranges applied for total bookings.
Let’s glance at the red and yellow card market. Should you didn’t know the yellow and red cards bet is calculated as 10 points for a yellow card and 25 points for any red. A player can get yourself a maximum of 35 points in a match (10 25).
The betting the following is normally split into 3 ranges. Under 11 points at say chances of 100/30, 11 to 30 points, at 6/4 and over 30 points, probably the most likely outcome, at about 11/10. This doesn’t vary much unless there xmjyld a medical history of animosity involving the teams where case the odds are adjusted accordingly.
Usually this kind of bet is not going to figure strongly within your plans. Plus it is unusual to discover information being issued that will change the total bookings bet. But an easy bit of news like the policy for issuing cards has just changed can affect prices and lead to one or more arb. The final outcome is not to expect a lot of sure betting activity through the issuing of red and yellow cards however it not so difficult to check the chances.